i dazi usa fanno male

Intervista a Xinhua: i Dazi USA Fanno Male

Sono stato intervistato da Xinhua insieme al prof. Sapelli, principale quotidiano cinese sulla questione dei dazi USA e le opportunità o minacce per l’Italia e la UE.

Paganini Non Ripete - e-zine Road to the Future

The weekly e-zine that analyzes economic and social facts, elaborates and shares ideas, helps anticipating the future.

L’intervista integrale è disponibile qui

Nell’intervista ho presentato i dati dell’interscambio commerciale Italia-USA. La bilancia propende a nostro favore il che fa infuriare il Presidente Trump. I dazi che minaccia sono uno strumento negoziale che se implementato potrebbe avere cattive ripercussioni sulle nostre PMI che soffrirebbero più di chiunque altro.


Il testo integrale dell’intervista, in inglese.

Italy likely to suffer from U.S.-China trade tension

ROME, Aug. 20 (Xinhua) — Italy is likely to suffer from the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China, analysts have said recently.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to put additional tariffs as high as 25 percent on 200 billion U.S. dollars of Chinese products imported into the United States, possibly as soon as September. In order to defend its legitimate rights and the international free trade order, China has vowed to respond in kind.

Most economists believe the trade tension between the two countries that, according to World Bank figures, account for nearly 40 percent of the world’s combined economic activity, would have a ripple effect across the world.

The impacts would be oversized for export-driven economies like Italy, which gets nearly 30 percent of its gross domestic product from exports, according to World Bank estimates.

“Italy is vulnerable to anything that makes trade less appealing,” Pietro Paganini, founder of the think tank Competere and a business administration professor at Rome’s John Cabot University, told Xinhua.

“Most Italian exports come from small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which means the companies lack the size to defend their interests internationally. They rely on diplomats and the government.”

“The best bet for Italy is to try to influence the European Union trade policies to emphasize exports’ importance to Italy, like fashion, food, and machine parts,” Paganini said.

But it is not clear how much influence Italy will have within the European Union given that the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has been willing to clash with the leadership of the 28-nation bloc in other areas, including migration and relations with Russia.

According to Giulio Sapelli, an economist and expert on economic history with the University of Milan, the biggest immediate economic impact for Italy from the proposed U.S. tariffs is likely to be higher prices for U.S. steel, which could force Italy to rely more on steel from China.