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Back to Stockpiling: Food Security is National Security – Paganini non Ripete 311

We invest heavily in energy security. Yet, as I have argued for years, we take something even more fundamental for granted: calories. In a world of fragile supply chains and growing geopolitical tensions, food availability can no longer be assumed. It is time to treat food security for what it is: national security.

Back to Stockpiling: Food Security is National Security 

WHAT HAPPENS   We worry a great deal about energy. And rightly so. Without oil and gas, factories stop, transport slows, and economies stall. 
  • The European debate of recent years reflects this: energy security, strategic autonomy, and diversification of supply. 

But there is an even more fundamental form of security that we continue to take for granted: the availability of calories.

  • The hierarchy is simple. Without energy, we slow down. Without calories, we die. 
Yet while energy sits at the centre of public policy, food, understood as physical availability, not dietary choice, remains largely absent from the debate.

THE SIGNALS WE ARE NOT READING   If we were to ask the European Commission or most national governments, they would struggle to say how much high-quality food is actually available to guarantee citizens a balanced diet in a crisis scenario. And yet, something is shifting.

  • Countries such as Finland and Sweden are strengthening their preparedness strategies by explicitly including food security. 
This is not alarmism. It is realism.
  • Others are moving in the same direction, including Indonesia.
  • At the same time, China continues to build strategic food reserves. According to estimates from the USDA, it holds more than half of global wheat reserves and an even larger share of maize and rice. We may not know the exact figures, but we understand the rationale.

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The context has changed. Pandemic. War. Pressure on global trade routes.
As highlighted by the World Bank and the OECD, recent disruptions have had immediate effects on both prices and availability.
Global supply chains work extremely well. But they are not designed to withstand prolonged shocks.
A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT ALLOW FOR ERROR   Over the past decades, we have built a highly efficient global food system. Production is geographically specialised, trade flows smoothly, and logistics are optimised.
But this efficiency comes with a constraint: the system does not allow for error.
It is continuous, tightly interconnected, and dependent on every link holding. When one breaks, the effects cascade rapidly.
Moreover, the system is highly concentrated. 
  • According to the FAO, a significant share of global cereal exports is controlled by a small number of countries. When one of them stops, the impact is immediate and global.

We have optimised for cost and speed. Much less for resilience.
So the question becomes both simple and uncomfortable: what happens if the flow stops?

LESS SECURE THAN IT SEEMS   Europe is a global agri-food power. But it is not self-sufficient.
According to the European Commission and Eurostat, the Union depends significantly on external inputs: plant proteins such as soy (largely imported), key fats including palm oil, fertilisers, and energy.
This means that Europe’s caloric security depends not only on what it produces, but on what it can import, process, and distribute.
And this is where vulnerability becomes visible.

STOCKPILE OR TRUST?   Faced with this fragility, a concept that seemed outdated is returning: stockpiling.

  • Building reserves. Preparing for disruption.
  • But how and at what level?

National stockpiles offer control and speed of response. 

European-level coordination could provide efficiency and diversity. 
Continued reliance on global trade remains the most efficient option, but also the most exposed to geopolitical and logistical risks.
Each option carries a cost.

  • Stockpiling ties up capital and introduces inefficiencies, potentially adding inflationary pressure. 
  • European coordination raises complex governance questions. 
  • Trade dependence, in an unstable world, can quickly turn into strategic vulnerability.
There is no perfect solution. But there is an unavoidable question: how much security are we willing to pay for and at what cost?

THE QUESTIONS WE AVOID   The real issue is that these questions are still not at the centre of the debate.

  • What kind of calories should be guaranteed in a crisis, just quantity, or also nutritional quality (better health, longevity, less healthcare costs for our systems)?
  • Who decides what is essential?
  • How much trust can we place in trade routes and partners in a volatile geopolitical environment?

Increasingly, as noted by the World Economic Forum, food security is being treated as a core component of national security.
And yet, we continue to approach it as a secondary issue.

FROM THE PLATE TO AVAILABILITY   Public debate today is largely focused on what we eat: labels, taxes, classifications, ingredients.
Policy intervenes on the plate. It ignores availability.

  • This is a fundamental mistake. Without availability, there is no choice. 
  • Without access, even the most sophisticated nutrition policies become irrelevant.
Before debating what people should eat, we should ensure that there is something to eat.
TOWARDS A MORE REALISTIC APPROACH   The answer is likely neither autarky nor blind reliance on global markets.

It is a combination: targeted strategic reserves, open but diversified trade, stronger logistical resilience, and a clearer recognition of food security as a central economic and geopolitical priority for Europe.

This is not about changing the model. It is about strengthening it.
THE INVISIBLE SECURITY   Energy is visible. Its crises are immediate and loud.
Calories are not. They remain invisible, until they are no longer there.
And that is precisely the risk: realising it too late.

Back to Stockpiling: Food Security is National Security – Paganini non Ripete 311

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